11/03/2007

American Gangster and Bee Movie: The Pirate Bay As Movie Forecaster

American Gangster opens the weekend, and ThoseInTheKnow are predicting great things. There's a hush as American Gangster, combined with Jerry Seinfeld's Bee Movie, are hoped to bring in big bucks to a lackluster American Box Office this year.

Sure, it's got Denzel Washinton and Russell Crowe. But, here's the thing. A full, high-quality pirated version has been available to a world-wide audience over at The Pirate Bay for a couple of weeks now.

American Gangster hasn't held a lead over there -- this morning - as I write this - it's in 6th place, with Death at a Funeral in the #1 spot.

No, I'm not suggesting that you go watch American Gangster for free courtesy of the Pirates. That's stealing.

I'm just curious about TPB as a predictor of how popular a movie really will be, and if my hunch is right, then American Gangster is not going to be a Bourne Ultimatum ($412 million worldwide as of last weekend) nor a Ratatouille ($555 million worldwide as of last weekend). (Both Bourne and Rat are in the top 5 at TPB right now, despite being released several weeks ago.)

Bee Movie? It's not even on TPB top ten -- and it's getting "rotten" reviews over at Rotten Tomatoes.