9/21/2010

San Antonio Named Most-Recession Proof City in America (other than Washington D.C.) - But What About the Drug Money?

Derek Thompson of The Atlantic has named San Antonio, Texas, as the most recession proof city in America. If you don't consider the nation's capitol, of course.

Mr. Thompson's provided lots of support for his position. He even came down here and looked around. That's good - we love people to come and visit our fair city.

However, I'm pondering that there's a huge economic cushion here in my town that isn't getting considered in the analysis here: that's all the drug money that flows through our area.  Now, I'm not sure how you'd gather numbers for any real comparisons, but I do know it's here and it's huge.

How do I know?  Well, the fact that there's a lot of drug money around here isn't news to those of us who live in the Alamo City.  However, the extent to which my beloved hometown is a business hub for the transportation of illegal goods became clear to me during the three years that I was active in the Bexar County Children's Court, representing abused and neglected kids in CPS cases.  Sometimes, yes, I represented the parents who were being threatened with their parental rights being terminated, too. 

From these clients, as well as CPS Investigators, and various members of law enforcement (Border Patrol, Texas Rangers) I came to learn how the drug business is just like any other: it's a profit-oriented enterprise, and it has distribution and transportation concerns as well as manufacturing and marketing. 

Interstate 35 and Interstate 10 intersect smack-dab in the middle of San Antonio.  Last I heard, a lot of heroin was being moved along these routes by the cartels up and through the rest of the nation.  From Mexico, San Antonio is an important link in the distribution chain.

Which brings lots of money into our economy, whether we like it or not.  Not to mention the human trafficking (I learned about the coyote business during my CPS representations, too) and gun-running. 

Is this illegal stuff a true cornerstone of our local economy?  I don't know, because I have no idea how much we're truly talking about here.  However, from what I gleaned from all the people that shared their information with me, it's big numbers.  Millions, billions.

And that I think may be the real reason that San Antonio isn't hurting economically as much as other parts of the country right now. 

9/20/2010

The Recession Ended in 2009? Who are they kidding?

The Big Kahanas are reporting that the Recession is Over.  The Associated Press is basing its news on the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), and Time Magazine is sourcing the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research)  -- both opining that things magically changed in June 2009, and yes -- over 14 months ago, the recession was over. 

Read the OECD Report Overview here.  Read the NBER Summary here.

My first thoughts:  baloney

Maybe if you label 2007-2009 a recession, and then a couple of years down the road, you come back and label another batch of months a second (double dip) recession, you can feel better about things.  (Which is what I'm expecting these Svengalis will do, to justify the reports they've just issued.)   

I think we're in a Depression, not dipping recessions, and that the government is scared of public reaction if they start using that very, very scary word: depression.  Lots of us remember family members telling horrific stories about the Great Depression, and heck: who wants to think that the Joad Family is their future? 

What about their numbers?  Statistics - please.  I think things have been fudged, ignored, manipulated here because my reality simply does not jive with these reports. 

Bottom line, I'm not buying what I'm being told.  But heck, who am I? 

My finance degree (BBA) is ancient history, my law degree means I look for an argument, and my writing career means I'm nosy and try to observe every piece of lint that floats by ... so I went looking around.

And I see that there are others that aren't buying it, either:

Stephen Gandel at Time.com predicts a double dip.  Another recession is coming (is here?).

Ann Brenoff at WalletPop discusses reality vs. the NBER, with stats on unemployment and poverty levels among other things.

BusinessPundit calls the NBER "hallucinatory" - love this.  Hallucinations, makes me chuckle.

ZeroHedge labels the NBER findings "worthless," wondering when the reality that we're in the midst of a Depression will be announced to the public (predicting the mid2020s).  Kudos here to actually using the skeery word.

In the midst of all this surfing around, I discovered a Dartmouth economist's site, where he analyzes governmental reporting -- and John Williams has a very, very different take on the state of our economy today. 

He's got employment at 22% (which sounds pretty real to me) and GDP in the negative since 2004.

Now that, that's sounding closer to the mark. 

9/19/2010

Randy Quaid Squatting in a Home He Used to Own? He's Lucky this Bust is in California and not Texas: or is he?

Randy Quaid and his wife Evi have been arrested again by the California police.   According to news reports, Mr. and Mrs. Quaid not only gained access to this Santa Barbara County home -- apparently up for sale, there's a realtor who is talking to the tabloids (gotta love that, right?) -- Randy and Evi hung their portrait above the fireplace.

When confronted, they claimed to own the property -- but that was soon refuted by the owner and some annoying property records.  Randy and Evi Quaid sit in a Santa Barbara County jail as I type this.

What Is Going On With Randy and Evi Quaid?

I do not understand how these two are roaming around - still - when it seems pretty obvious that there's some serious psychological trouble here (the TMZ commenters are less tactful than I am: they just label Evi a "nutjob").  Randy apparently carved his initials into the mailbox.  The couple had set up house here, too: at the time of arrest, there were dirty dishes in the kitchen sink and clothes were already hung in the closet.  Did they really think they could hang there indefinitely?

Here's my question: didn't they have any other place to go?  Have they already alienated all their friends and family (this happens, you know).  According to IMDB, Randy has been barred from the Actor's Equity Association, but the site also shows some very nice salaries -- including $1,000,000 for Goya's Ghosts (2006).   

Are they broke? Homeless? 

The Santa Barbara cops busted Randy and Evi Quaid on felony burglary charges and each also face a misdemeanor charge of entering a building without consent. Evi has a third charge: resisting arrest (no surprise there). It's a misdemeanor, too.

As you will remember, Randy and Evi have been arrested in the not-too-distant past: just this past April, in fact. They purportedly skipped on paying a hotel bill .... 

Each is being held on a $50,000 bail. That's not much. 

Randy and Evi Quaid are Lucky They Were Busted in California, not Texas -- or are they?

With California's history of treating celebrities differently (think Paris Hilton, think Lindsay Lohan) the Quaids are probably thought by many to be lucky that they're dealing with California authorities. 

Because here in Texas, I'm betting that we'd already be hearing something about psychological evaluations and drug tests and hair follicle analysis.  Adult Protective Services, Guardianships, these things come to mind.  A bigger bail to make sure some kind of investigation could be put in place before they were free on the streets again. 

Cuz Randy Quaid and his wife Evi aren't acting in their own best interests, and maybe they're even getting close to crossing the line of becoming a danger to themselves or others (legal terms italicized). 

Doesn't look like celebrity status is doing much to help them here, and I worry that if someone doesn't step in soon, we're gonna be talking tragedy. 

So, while this story will be the butt of some late night jokes, I'm sitting here thinking Too Bad.  Randy Quaid needs some help - and some respect.  He's been nominated for an Oscar and he's built an impressive body of work.